Poker is an advanced card game that requires particular skills and knowledge. To give you a helping hand in decision-making at the table, we’ve created this guide explaining everything about the hands, odds, and probabilities.
What Is Probability in Poker?
Probability shows the possibility of an event occurring. In poker, it can help determine if you have an advantage during a round. Yet, keep in mind that the percentage can shift with each card on the board. If the probability of winning remains high, you should go all the way.
How to Calculate Poker Hand Probabilities
You’ll need to consider all possibilities to get the percentage of a particular outcome. There are 2,598,960 total hand combinations when playing poker with a 52-card deck. Now, we start from that and turn to calculate the number of ways to get a straight flush.
There are 10 possible ranks for a straight flush, each available in 4 suits, giving us 10 × 4 = 40 combinations. Dividing 40 by 2,598,960 gives a probability of 0.0000154, or 0.00154%.
Pre-Flop Probabilities
Knowing your winning odds before the first three community cards are dealt is crucial. It helps you decide whether to stay in the round or fold early. Below are some common match-up probabilities to guide your decisions.
| Match-Up | Example | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Pocket Pair vs. Overcards (player’s cards higher than the board’s highest card) | Q, Q vs. K, A | 55% |
| Two High Cards vs. Two Lower Cards | J, Q vs. 6, 5 | 65% |
| Pocket Pair vs. Undercard (player’s card lower than the board’s lowest card) and Overcard | J, J vs. 7, K | 70% |
| Higher Pocket Pair vs. Lower Pocket Pair | A, A vs J, J | 80% |
| Pocket Pair vs. Overcard and a Card as the Pair | Q, Q vs. A, Q | 90% |
Pocket Pairs Probability
Below are the odds of being dealt specific pairs in Texas Hold’em.
| Pocket Pair | The Probability of Being Dealt | Approximate Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Any Pocket Pair | 5.9% | 1 in 17 hands |
| Aces (AA) | 0.45% | 1 in 221 hands |
| Kings (KK) | 0.45% | 1 in 221 hands |
| Queens (QQ) | 0.45% | 1 in 221 hands |
| Jacks (JJ) | 0.45% | 1 in 221 hands |
| Tens (TT) | 0.45% | 1 in 221 hands |
| Lower Pairs (2s-9s) | 0.45% | 1 in 221 hands |
Hand vs. Hand Probabilities
As you play against other participants, you need to be aware of your hand’s power against theirs during the pre-flop. If you have a strong combination (A and K, for example), you might start off with a raise or all-in. Make sure to check the details mentioned below.
| Your Hand | Opponent Hand | Probability of Winning |
|---|---|---|
| Two High Cards | Low Pair | 55% |
| Two High Cards | Two Low Cards | 63% |
| Middle Pair | One Low Card and One High Card | 71% |
| High Pair | Low Pair | 82% |
| High Pair | Two Low Cards | 83% |
Post-Flop Probabilities: Improving Your Hand
Community cards can improve your hand, but chances depend on the cards you hold. For instance, pairs only flop a set 12% of the time, so small pairs aren’t always reliable. Many beginners also overvalue suited cards, often chasing a flush with low odds.
| Combination Possibility | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| A pair will flop four-of-a-kind | 400:1 | 0.25% |
| A pair will flop a set | 8:1 | 12% |
| Non-pairs will pair at least one card | 2:1 | 32% |
| Two suited cards flopping a flush | 118:1 | 0.85% |
| Two suited cards, making a flush | 15:1 | 6.50% |
| Two suited cards flopping a 4-flush (lacks one card to hit a flush) | 9:1 | 10.90% |
Poker Hands Odds
In poker, you can win a round with one of ten possible hand types. The table below ranks each five-card hand, ranging from the highest odds to the lowest.
| Hands | Odds | Probability | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| High Card | 0.995:1 | 50.1177% | 1:1 |
| One Pair | 1.37:1 | 42.2569% | 1:1 |
| Two Pairs | 20:1 | 4.7539% | 1:1 |
| Three of a Kind | 46.3:1 | 2.1128% | 1:1 |
| Straight | 254:1 | 0.3925% | 1:1 |
| Flush | 508:1 | 0.1965% | 2:1 |
| Full House | 693:1 | 0.1441% | 3:1 |
| Four-of-a-Kind | 4.164:1 | 0.0240% | 10:1 |
| Straight Flush | 72.192:1 | 0.00139% | 20:1 |
| Royal Flush | 649.739:1 | 0.000154% | 100:1 |
Note:Always keep the odds in mind when making decisions. Hands like a flush or straight are rare (less than 0.4% probability), so focus on pairs and high cards for more consistent wins over time.
Common Poker Hands Odds
Every poker player needs to know the odds of standard hands scenarios to specific hole card probabilities. Knowing your chances gives you an edge. The best way to do that is to memorise them from the tables that follow in this article.
Odds of Being Dealt Specific Hands
We’ll start with the odds of beginning a round with a specific hand type.
| Scenario | Explanation | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Open-Ended Straight Draws
(OESD) |
A straight draw that you can complete at either hand. For instance, holding 5,6,7, and 8 means you’ll either go after 4 or 9. | 4.8:1 |
| Four to a Flush | This is a situation where you’re one card short of getting a flush. | 4.1:1 |
| Inside Straight (Gutshot) | A combination that forms a straight with one of the 3 middle cards missing. For example, missing an 8,9, or 10 for a straight with 7, 8, 9, 10, J. | 10.5:1 |
| One Pair to Two Pair or Trips | A two-pair features two cards of the same value, which is the 7th best poker hand. If you have a Q and 10 and suspect the opponent has a pair of Ks, then you have five outs to beat. | 8.2:1 |
| Overcards | These are hole cards of a higher rank compared to the community ones. For instance, if you’re holding K and A while the flop features cards like 9, 5, and 4. Here, you have six outs to beat. | 6.7:1 |
| Drawing to a Set | A draw occurs whenever you have an incomplete hand and need additional cards. | 22:1 |
Hole Cards Probability
The probability of being dealt certain hole cards in Texas Hold’em can affect your strategy. Here’s a quick reference.
| Hand | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Not connected nor suited to at least one 2-9 | 0.534 | 0.873:1 |
| Any two cards with a rank of 9 or higher | 0.208 | 3.81:1 |
| Connected cards (consecutively ranking cards) | 0.157 | 5.37:1 |
| Any two cards with a rank 10 or higher | 0.143 | 5.98:1 |
| Any two cards with rank Jack or higher | 0.0905 | 10.1:1 |
| Any two cards with a rank Queen or higher | 0.0498 | 19.1:1 |
| Connected cards | 0.0483 | 19.7:1 |
| Suited connectors | 0.0392 | 24.5:1 |
| Suited cards, 10 or better | 0.0302 | 32.2:1 |
| TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA | 0.0226 | 43.2:1 |
| Suited cards, jack or better | 0.0181 | 54.25:1 |
| JJ, QQ, KK, or AA | 0.0181 | 54.25:1 |
| QQ, KK, or AA | 0.0136 | 72.7:1 |
| AK (or any specific non-pair, including suited) | 0.0121 | 81.9:1 |
| JTs, QJs, KQs, or AKs (or any particular pair) | 0.0121 | 81.9:1 |
| AA (or any particular pair) | 0.00452 | 220:1 |
| AKs (or any particularly suited card) | 0.00302 | 330.5:1 |
Basic Odds and Outs
The lower the odds, the higher the risk of losing and vice versa. So, calculating odds and outs helps you determine whether the reward justifies the risk.
Pot Odds and Implied Odds Explained
Pot odds tell if the pot offers enough value to justify calling a bet. For example, a straight draw has around a 20% chance to hit, translating to 4:1 odds. So, if you need to call $20 on an $80 pot, you’re right at the break-even point. Implied odds consider future potential winnings if your draw hits.
Note:If the pot odds are better than your hand odds, staying in the game is worth the call.
| Odds | Probability |
|---|---|
| 10:1 | 9% |
| 9:1 | 10% |
| 7:1 | 12% |
| 6:1 | 14% |
| 5:1 | 17% |
| 4:1 | 20% |
| 3:1 | 25% |
| 1.5:1 (or 3:2) | 40% |
| 1:1 | 50% |
Outs Explained
In poker, outs are cards that can help you make your hand combination. For instance, if you’re on a flush draw with four spades, you have nine possible outs (the remaining spades) in the deck. Each scenario has a specific number of outs as shown in the table below.
| Draw | Odds | Outs | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gutshot Straight | 11:1 | 4 | 8% |
| Two Overcards | 7:1 | 6 | 12% |
| Open Ended Straight | 5:1 | 8 | 16% |
| Flush | 4:1 | 9 | 18% |
| Flush + Gutshot | 3:1 | 12 | 24% |
Odds of Specific Scenarios
Check other specific hand odds in a poker session you can encounter. For instance, the odds of flopping a flush are 0.8%, while flopping a set with a pocket pair is around 12%.
| Hand | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Not connected nor suited to at least one 2-9 | 0.534 | 0.873:1 |
| Any two cards with a rank of 9 or higher | 0.208 | 3.81:1 |
| Connected cards (consecutively ranking cards) | 0.157 | 5.37:1 |
| Any two cards with a rank 10 or higher | 0.143 | 5.98:1 |
| Any two cards with rank Jack or higher | 0.0905 | 10.1:1 |
| Any pocket pair | 0.0588 | 16:1 |
| Any two cards with a rank Queen or higher | 0.0498 | 19.1:1 |
| Connected cards | 0.0483 | 19.7:1 |
| Suited connectors | 0.0392 | 24.5:1 |
| Suited cards, 10 or better | 0.0302 | 32.2:1 |
| TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA | 0.0226 | 43.2:1 |
| Suited cards, jack or better | 0.0181 | 54.3:1 |
| JJ, QQ, KK, or AA | 0.0181 | 54.3:1 |
| QQ, KK, or AA | 0.0136 | 72.7:1 |
| AK (or any specific non-pair, including suited) | 0.0121 | 81.9:1 |
| JTs, QJs, KQs, or AKs (or any particular pair) | 0.0121 | 81.9:1 |
| AA (or any specific pair) | 0.00452 | 220:1 |
| AKs (or any particularly suited card) | 0.00302 | 331:1 |
Bad Beats
These occur whenever a player completes a hand combination that begins with a low success probability. Chasing such an outcome is risky as it might not happen very often.
Note:Following the maths can help you lower your overall losses. Using cheat sheets is also a helpful tool for online play until you’re more experienced.
How to Use Odds in Poker
There isn’t a single way to play poker, and the odds are there to guide you into making the right decisions. Here’s an example on using them.
Suppose you’re holding K and J of hearts, and the board shows A and 2 of hearts and 8 of spades. A player bets $1.5, bringing the pot to $3.5. Since your odds of 2.3:1 aren’t favourable here, folding is the best move, as you’d need odds of 4:1 or better to chase the flush. Remember the odds and risks involved in each decision when following a poker strategy.
